A winter traverse route in the Snake River Mountains from Little Elk Creek to Palisades Creek. 3 planned days with a potential to link days 2 and 3 if gliding is easy. Comments: Current conditions (25 Jan 2021) have PWLs buried 2-4'. Although current dangers are 'Moderate', these PWLs will be sensitive to new loading. Potential for D3-D4.5 avalanches. The 3 day forecast has 3-4" NS with 0.3-0.45" SWE. This is roughly representative of the days prior to the start of the tour. The 5 day forecast has 6.5-15" NS with 0.6-1.5" SWE. This is roughly representative of what the conditions will be on the first day of the tour. The 10 day forecast has 13-22" NS with 1.3-2.1" SWE. This is roughly representative of what conditions will be at the end of the tour, minus about 6". NS significantly tapers off around day 6 of the 10 day forecast, with a good shower (~6") on day 8 which would be after the tour. All weather forecast taken from windy.com at Upper Palisades Lake comparing ECMWF-HRES to GFS (read 'NOAA'), where GFS is predicting the higher amounts of precip in the above ranges. Normally, ECMWF is the gold standard for global weather models, but GFS is a trustworthy model for specifically the Unites States and it currently agrees well with the ICON (Global German Standard). Discussion: With the new storm coming in fairly warm (mid 20s F temperatures and potentially 10% density) with forecasts of heavy snow, I advise that the currently proposed route be altered or abandoned for safer conditions. There are significant rounout zones on day 1, when natural avalanches will probably be professionally forecasted as 'Possible' to 'Likely' ('High' danger level) and exposure will be extended from moving slowly. Note: 'Line & Polygons' folder (left sidebar) contains potential route with descriptions based on the Munter Tour Planning Formula, where 1 travel unit = 100m and 1 travel unit = 1 km. For a specific segment, sum travels units and divide by pace factor for time in hours. Typical pace factors are: 'ascending on skis' = 4, 'descending on skis' = 14+, 'gliding on skis' = 8. Note: 'Runout Zones' folder (left sidebar) contains runout angles (in degrees) for potential avalanches to hit the potential route. Also, use the NAIP layer opacity slider (right sidebar) to view old vs young growth forest and toggle slope angle shading (right sidebar). Interestingly, many of the lower drainage runout zones are not historic avalanche paths. The runout angles are relevant based on the following positive (right) skewed bell curve: Very few avalanches below 20 degrees. 25-30 degrees is the mode, and very few avalanches above 45 degrees.